欧博allbet中国工程科技2040技术预见方法体系及其应用
中国工程科技2040技术预见研究由中国工程院和国家自然科学基金委员会联合组织开展，欧博allbet作为中国工程科技2040发展战略研究的重要组成部分，旨在通过技术预见更准确地把握科技发展大势，研判可能产生重大突破的工程科技关键技术和发展方向。为提高中国工程科技2040技术预见的前瞻性和科学性，本文在2040技术预见中，组织开展了技术预见方法应用与预见成果影响两方面的技术预见效果评估，按照强调需求牵引、愿景驱动，强化专家研判与多源大数据智能分析相结合的思路，设计了中国工程科技2040技术预见的方法体系，开发了工程科技战略咨询智能支持系统，构建了以专家为核心、数据为支撑、交互为手段的规范流程，推进了技术预见的实施。研究形成了包含11个领域900余项技术的备选技术清单，开展了两轮德尔菲专家调查，研判提出了110项领域核心技术、25项关键共性技术和21项颠覆性技术，为中国工程科技2040发展战略研究提供了重要支撑。
Abstract
The Research on the Technology Foresight of China's Engineering Science and Technologies Toward 2040 is jointly organized by the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the National Natural Science Foundation of China. As an important component of the research on China's engineering science and technology development strategy to 2040, it aims to predict the general trend of scientific and technological development and clarifying the key engineering science and technologies and development directions that may yield major breakthroughs. To improve the forward-looking and scientific nature of the technology foresight, this study evaluates the effectiveness of the technology foresight from two aspects: application of the technology foresight methodology and impact of the foresight results. Following the idea of emphasizing demand traction and vision drive as well as combining expert judgment and multi-source big data intelligent analysis, this study designed a methodology system, developed the intelligent Support System (iSS) for strategic studies on engineering science and technology, and constructed a standardized process centered on experts, supported by data, and facilitated by interaction, thus to push forward the implementation of the technology foresight. The study has formed a list of alternative technologies containing over 900 items in 11 fields, conducted two rounds of Delphi expert surveys, and proposed 110 domain core technologies, 25 key common technologies, and 21 disruptive technologies, thereby providing an important support for the research on China's engineering science and technology development strategy to 2040.
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周晓纪, 张永伟, 马守磊. 中国工程科技2040技术预见方法体系及其应用. 中国工程科学. 2024, 26(5): 117-127 https://doi.org/10.15302/J-SSCAE-2024.05.012
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基金
中国工程院咨询项目“中国工程科技未来20年发展战略研究”(2021-XBZD-13); 国家自然科学基金项目(L1724032)